Solar activity report

Viewing archive of Saturday, 10 November 2012

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Nov 10 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 315 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Nov 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 10/0504Z from Region 1608 (S20W03) which was also associated with a coronal mass ejection (CME). An additional CME was observed off the west limb at 10/1448Z but was from a region on the backside and is not earthward directed. A new unnumbered spot region is rotating onto the disk from east limb at about S21. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast

Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class event on days one, two, and three (11 Nov, 12 Nov, 13 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 337 km/s at 09/2104Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet with a slight chance of unsettled levels on day one (11 Nov). The CMEs from 09/1524Z and 10/0539Z are expected to merge and arrive on 12 Nov around 1200Z which will increase geomagnetic activity to active levels with a chance for minor storm periods on days two and three (12 Nov, 13 Nov).

III. Event Probabilities 11 Nov to 13 Nov

Class M	10%	10%	10%
Class X	01%	01%	01%
Proton	01%	01%	01%
PCAF	green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  Observed       10 Nov 122
  Predicted   11 Nov-13 Nov 130/135/140
  90 Day Mean        10 Nov 117

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  Observed Afr/Ap 09 Nov  001/002
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 10 Nov  002/002
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 11 Nov-13 Nov  007/007-017/030-013/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Nov to 13 Nov

A. Middle Latitudes
Active	05%	35%	35%
Minor storm	01%	20%	25%
Major-severe storm	01%	05%	05%

B. High Latitudes
Active	15%	10%	30%
Minor storm	15%	25%	25%
Major-severe storm	05%	55%	05%

All times in UTC

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G4 - Severe geomagnetic storm

Observed Kp: 8
Threshold reached: 20:54 UTC

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Oulu, Rovaniemi, Kuopio
Trondheim
Arkhangelsk
Luleå, Sundsvall, Umeå

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following middle latitude regions in the near future

Tampere

The density of the solar wind is moderate (22.35 p/cm³)

The strength of the interplanetary magnetic field is moderate (11.64nT), the direction is North (6.15nT).

The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts strong storm conditions right now (-137nT)

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