Solar activity report

Viewing archive of Monday, 3 December 2012

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Dec 03 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 338 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Dec 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest flare was a C1 observed at 03/0036Z from a region that has not yet rotated around the east limb. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast

Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels on days one, two, and three (04 Dec, 05 Dec, 06 Dec).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 381 km/s at 03/2032Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 03/1959Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7.5 nT at 03/2032Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels for the next three days (04 Dec, 05 Dec, 06 Dec).

III. Event Probabilities 04 Dec to 06 Dec

Class M	01%	01%	01%
Class X	01%	01%	01%
Proton	01%	01%	01%
PCAF	green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  Observed       03 Dec 097
  Predicted   04 Dec-06 Dec 100/105/105
  90 Day Mean        03 Dec 121

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  Observed Afr/Ap 02 Dec  008/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 03 Dec  004/004
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 04 Dec-06 Dec  005/005-004/005-004/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Dec to 06 Dec

A. Middle Latitudes
Active	05%	05%	05%
Minor storm	01%	01%	01%
Major-severe storm	01%	01%	01%

B. High Latitudes
Active	15%	15%	15%
Minor storm	15%	10%	10%
Major-severe storm	05%	05%	05%

All times in UTC

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G2 - Moderate geomagnetic storm

Observed Kp: 6
Threshold reached: 18:45 UTC

Current data suggests there is a high possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Arkhangelsk

Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following middle latitude regions in the near future

Petrozavodsk, Surgut, Syktyvkar

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following middle latitude regions in the near future

Riga
Perm, Saint Petersburg, Yaroslavl

The strength of the interplanetary magnetic field is moderate (16.06nT), the direction is moderately South (-13.45nT).

The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts strong storm conditions right now (-143nT)

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