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Viewing archive of Sunday, 9 December 2012

Solar activity report

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Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Dec 09 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 344 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Dec 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 09/1747Z from Region 1630 (N18E02). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels on days one, two, and three (10 Dec, 11 Dec, 12 Dec) with a chance for C-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 349 km/s at 09/0910Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 09/0726Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 09/1829Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels for the next three days (10 Dec, 11 Dec, 12 Dec) with a chance for unsettled levels during 10 - 11 Dec.
III. Event Probabilities 10 Dec to 12 Dec
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       09 Dec 104
  Predicted   10 Dec-12 Dec 105/105/105
  90 Day Mean        09 Dec 119
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 08 Dec  001/001
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 09 Dec  002/002
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 10 Dec-12 Dec  007/007-006/007-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Dec to 12 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm15%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Oulu, Rovaniemi, Sodankylä, Utsjoki
Kirkenes, Tromsø
Murmansk, Norilsk, Vorkuta
Kiruna, Luleå

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Kuopio
Trondheim
Arkhangelsk
Sundsvall, Umeå

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following middle latitude regions in the near future

Tampere
Petrozavodsk, Surgut, Syktyvkar
The solar wind speed is currently moderately high (501.3 km/sec.)
The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts moderate storm conditions right now (-68nT)

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