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Viewing archive of Monday, 10 December 2012

Solar activity report

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Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Dec 10 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 345 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Dec 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at 10/0558Z from Region 1630 (N19W11). There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. Two filament eruptions were observed off the southeast limb early in the period. Both events have associated CMEs; however neither event appears to be Earth directed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels on days one, two, and three (11 Dec, 12 Dec, 13 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 345 km/s at 10/0645Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 10/1431Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6.1 nT at 10/1651Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels for the next three days (11 Dec, 12 Dec, 13 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 11 Dec to 13 Dec
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       10 Dec 104
  Predicted   11 Dec-13 Dec 105/105/110
  90 Day Mean        10 Dec 119
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 09 Dec  003/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 10 Dec  004/004
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 11 Dec-13 Dec  005/005-005/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Dec to 13 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%05%05%

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Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Oulu, Rovaniemi, Sodankylä, Utsjoki
Kirkenes, Tromsø
Murmansk, Norilsk, Vorkuta
Kiruna, Luleå

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Kuopio
Trondheim
Arkhangelsk
Sundsvall, Umeå

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following middle latitude regions in the near future

Tampere
Petrozavodsk, Surgut, Syktyvkar
The solar wind speed is currently moderately high (501.3 km/sec.)
The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts moderate storm conditions right now (-68nT)

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