Viewing archive of Tuesday, 8 January 2013
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Jan 08 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 8 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jan 2013IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
08/1912Z from Region 1640 (N28, L=322). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low
with a chance for moderate levels on days one, two, and three (09 Jan,
10 Jan, 11 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 363 km/s at
08/0004Z. Total IMF reached 5.6 nT at 08/1957Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4.9 nT at 08/2004Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels for the next three days (09 Jan, 10 Jan, 11 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 09 Jan to 11 Jan
| Class M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Jan 156 Predicted 09 Jan-11 Jan 150/140/140 90 Day Mean 08 Jan 120
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jan 003/001 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Jan 003/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Jan-11 Jan 007/008-007/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jan to 11 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 20% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 15% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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