Viewing archive of Monday, 4 February 2013

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Feb 04 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 35 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Feb 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2/Sf flare with an associated Type II (estimated velocity of 849 km/s) observed at 04/1459Z from an unnumbered region that recently rotated around the eastern limb. This region was not numbered due to the close proximity to the limb. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk and no Earth-directed coronal mass ejections expected.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels on days one, two, and three (05 Feb, 06 Feb, 07 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 439 km/s at 03/2108Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 04/1630Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3.8 nT at 04/1632Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 204 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels for the next three days (05 Feb, 06 Feb, 07 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 05 Feb to 07 Feb
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       04 Feb 107
  Predicted   05 Feb-07 Feb 105/105/105
  90 Day Mean        04 Feb 120

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 03 Feb  006/002
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 04 Feb  003/004
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 05 Feb-07 Feb  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Feb to 07 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm10%10%10%

All times in UTC

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