Viewing archive of Monday, 4 February 2013
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Feb 04 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 35 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Feb 2013IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2/Sf flare with an
associated Type II (estimated velocity of 849 km/s) observed at 04/1459Z
from an unnumbered region that recently rotated around the eastern limb.
This region was not numbered due to the close proximity to the limb.
There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk and no
Earth-directed coronal mass ejections expected.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low
levels on days one, two, and three (05 Feb, 06 Feb, 07 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 439 km/s at
03/2108Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 04/1630Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -3.8 nT at 04/1632Z. Electrons greater than 2
MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 204 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels for the next three days (05 Feb, 06 Feb, 07 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 05 Feb to 07 Feb
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Feb 107 Predicted 05 Feb-07 Feb 105/105/105 90 Day Mean 04 Feb 120
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Feb 006/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Feb 003/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Feb-07 Feb 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Feb to 07 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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