Viewing archive of Sunday, 10 February 2013
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Feb 10 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 41 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Feb 2013IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low
levels on days one, two, and three (11 Feb, 12 Feb, 13 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 425 km/s at
09/2223Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 10/0048Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5.3 nT at 10/0414Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the next three days (11 Feb, 12
Feb, 13 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 11 Feb to 13 Feb
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Feb 106 Predicted 11 Feb-13 Feb 105/105/100 90 Day Mean 10 Feb 119
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Feb 003/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Feb 004/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Feb-13 Feb 005/005-008/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Feb to 13 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 20% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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