Viewing archive of Monday, 14 January 2013
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Jan 14 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 14 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jan 2013IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
14/0122Z from Region 1652 (N18W64). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
levels with moderate levels likely on days one, two, and three (15 Jan,
16 Jan, 17 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
593 km/s at 14/0352Z. Total IMF reached 8.6 nT at 13/2316Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6.8 nT at 14/0015Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 109 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels for days one and two (15-16 Jan) and unsettled
levels on day three (17 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 15 Jan to 17 Jan
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Jan 154 Predicted 15 Jan-17 Jan 150/145/140 90 Day Mean 14 Jan 123
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jan 010/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jan 008/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jan-17 Jan 006/005-006/005-009/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jan to 17 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 35% |
All times in UTC
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