Viewing archive of Sunday, 13 January 2013
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Jan 13 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 13 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jan 2013IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was an M1 event observed at
13/0838Z from Region 1652 (N19W28). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (14
Jan, 15 Jan, 16 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
511 km/s at 13/2043Z. Total IMF reached 11.1 nT at 13/1944Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -8.3 nT at 13/1858Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels for the next three days (14 Jan, 15 Jan, 16 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 14 Jan to 16 Jan
| Class M | 65% | 65% | 65% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Jan 156 Predicted 14 Jan-16 Jan 155/150/145 90 Day Mean 13 Jan 123
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jan 002/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jan 006/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jan-16 Jan 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jan to 16 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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