Viewing archive of Saturday, 12 January 2013
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Jan 12 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 12 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jan 2013IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
12/0224Z from Region 1654 (N08E18). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(13 Jan, 14 Jan, 15 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 418 km/s at
12/2037Z. Total IMF reached 8.8 nT at 11/2130Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -7.8 nT at 11/2130Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels for day one (13 Jan), and quiet for
days two and three (14 Jan, 15 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 13 Jan to 15 Jan
| Class M | 65% | 65% | 65% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Jan 169 Predicted 13 Jan-15 Jan 170/165/160 90 Day Mean 12 Jan 122
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jan 003/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jan 004/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jan-15 Jan 008/008-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jan to 15 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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