Viewing archive of Friday, 8 February 2013
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Feb 08 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 39 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Feb 2013IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low
levels on days one, two, and three (09 Feb, 10 Feb, 11 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
481 km/s at 08/1445Z. Total IMF reached 10.9 nT at 08/0159Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -9.6 nT at 08/0203Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels for the next three days (09 Feb, 10 Feb,
11 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 09 Feb to 11 Feb
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Feb 104 Predicted 09 Feb-11 Feb 105/110/105 90 Day Mean 08 Feb 120
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Feb 007/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Feb 008/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Feb-11 Feb 011/012-008/009-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Feb to 11 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 20% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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