Viewing archive of Saturday, 30 March 2013
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Mar 30 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 89 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Mar 2013IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (31 Mar,
01 Apr, 02 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 623 km/s at 29/2117Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 30/0325Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 30/0151Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1535
pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (31 Mar) and quiet levels
on days two and three (01 Apr, 02 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 31 Mar to 02 Apr
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Mar 108 Predicted 31 Mar-02 Apr 115/120/125 90 Day Mean 30 Mar 115
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Mar 019/026 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Mar 014/016 Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Mar-02 Apr 007/008-004/005-004/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Mar to 02 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 05% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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