Viewing archive of Thursday, 11 April 2013

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Apr 11 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 101 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Apr 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M6 event observed at 11/0716Z from Region 1719 (N10W00). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (12 Apr, 13 Apr, 14 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 507 km/s at 11/1243Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 11/0712Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 11/0916Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 114 pfu at 11/1645Z. Protons greater than 100 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2 pfu at 11/1400Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 385 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (12 Apr), quiet to major storm levels on day two (13 Apr) and unsettled to major storm levels on day three (14 Apr). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one (12 Apr), have a chance of crossing threshold on day two (13 Apr) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day three (14 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 12 Apr to 14 Apr
Class M50%50%50%
Class X15%15%15%
Proton99%30%10%
PCAFred
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       11 Apr 137
  Predicted   12 Apr-14 Apr 138/135/130
  90 Day Mean        11 Apr 113

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 10 Apr  005/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 11 Apr  004/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 12 Apr-14 Apr  006/005-018/026-028/045

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Apr to 14 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%30%30%
Minor storm01%35%45%
Major-severe storm01%10%15%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%10%15%
Minor storm15%20%25%
Major-severe storm10%60%35%

All times in UTC

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