Viewing archive of Friday, 15 March 2013

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Mar 15 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 74 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Mar 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 15/0658Z from Region 1692 (N09W03). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (16 Mar, 17 Mar, 18 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 517 km/s at 15/0500Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 15/0719Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 15/0619Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (16 Mar), unsettled to major storm levels on day two (17 Mar) and quiet to active levels on day three (18 Mar). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one and two (16 Mar, 17 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Mar to 18 Mar
Class M20%20%20%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton15%15%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       15 Mar 123
  Predicted   16 Mar-18 Mar 120/120/115
  90 Day Mean        15 Mar 116

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 14 Mar  004/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 15 Mar  006/006
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 16 Mar-18 Mar  008/015-028/037-014/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Mar to 18 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%30%30%
Minor storm20%35%10%
Major-severe storm05%20%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%05%15%
Minor storm15%20%30%
Major-severe storm10%70%40%

All times in UTC

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