Viewing archive of Saturday, 27 April 2013
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Apr 27 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 117 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Apr 2013IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
26/2225Z from Region 1726 (N13W93). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (28 Apr, 29 Apr,
30 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed started the period near 600 km/s and slowly decreased to near
490 km/s by the end of the period. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 26/2141Z.
The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 26/2300Z.
Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak
level of 2922 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (28 Apr, 29 Apr, 30
Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 28 Apr to 30 Apr
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Apr 127 Predicted 28 Apr-30 Apr 125/125/125 90 Day Mean 27 Apr 112
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Apr 018/021 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Apr 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Apr-30 Apr 005/005-004/005-004/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Apr to 30 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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