Viewing archive of Sunday, 28 April 2013

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Apr 28 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 118 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Apr 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 28/2017Z from Region 1733 (S17W42) and it was accompanied by Type II (576 km/s) and Type IV radio emissions. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (29 Apr, 30 Apr, 01 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 466 km/s at 27/2157Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 28/1238Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 28/1249Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2698 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and three (29 Apr, 01 May) and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (30 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 29 Apr to 01 May
Class M25%25%25%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       28 Apr 132
  Predicted   29 Apr-01 May 130/130/130
  90 Day Mean        28 Apr 112

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 27 Apr  006/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 28 Apr  002/003
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 29 Apr-01 May  004/005-003/005-004/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Apr to 01 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm15%20%15%
Major-severe storm10%20%10%

All times in UTC

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