Viewing archive of Sunday, 12 May 2013
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 May 12 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 132 Issued at 2200Z on 12 May 2013IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
12/2032Z from a region around the east limb. There are currently 10
numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (13 May, 14 May,
15 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 435 km/s at
11/2151Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 456 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (13 May), quiet levels on
day two (14 May) and quiet to active levels on day three (15 May).
III. Event Probabilities 13 May to 15 May
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 May 147 Predicted 13 May-15 May 150/150/150 90 Day Mean 12 May 118
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 May 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 May 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 May-15 May 007/008-003/008-010/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 May to 15 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 15% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 10% | 30% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
TórshavnOulu, Rovaniemi, Kuopio, Sodankylä, Utsjoki
Kirkenes, Tromsø, Trondheim
Arkhangelsk, Murmansk, Norilsk, Vorkuta
Kiruna, Luleå, Sundsvall, Umeå
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