Viewing archive of Sunday, 12 May 2013

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 May 12 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 132 Issued at 2200Z on 12 May 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 12/2032Z from a region around the east limb. There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (13 May, 14 May, 15 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 435 km/s at 11/2151Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 456 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (13 May), quiet levels on day two (14 May) and quiet to active levels on day three (15 May).
III. Event Probabilities 13 May to 15 May
Class M50%50%50%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       12 May 147
  Predicted   13 May-15 May 150/150/150
  90 Day Mean        12 May 118

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 11 May  004/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 12 May  007/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 13 May-15 May  007/008-003/008-010/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 May to 15 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%10%25%
Minor storm05%01%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm25%15%30%
Major-severe storm25%10%30%

All times in UTC

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