Viewing archive of Monday, 13 May 2013

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 May 13 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 133 Issued at 2200Z on 13 May 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a X2 event observed at 13/1605Z from Region 1748(N12E86). There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (14 May, 15 May, 16 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 395 km/s at 13/0623Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 13/1650Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 13/0514Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 501 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (14 May), quiet to active levels on day two (15 May) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (16 May). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (14 May, 15 May, 16 May).
III. Event Probabilities 14 May to 16 May
Class M80%80%80%
Class X40%40%40%
Proton20%20%20%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       13 May 150
  Predicted   14 May-16 May 150/150/145
  90 Day Mean        13 May 118

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 12 May  006/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 13 May  006/006
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 14 May-16 May  003/005-010/015-006/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 May to 16 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%25%15%
Minor storm01%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm15%30%25%
Major-severe storm10%30%25%

All times in UTC

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