Viewing archive of Tuesday, 14 May 2013
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 May 14 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 134 Issued at 2200Z on 14 May 2013IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X3 event observed at
14/0111Z from Region 1748 (N11E63). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (15 May, 16
May, 17 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
432 km/s at 14/1129Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 14/1806Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 14/1128Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 213 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (15 May), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (16 May) and quiet levels on day three (17 May).
Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (15 May),
have a chance of crossing threshold on day two (16 May) and have a
chance of crossing threshold on day three (17 May).
III. Event Probabilities 15 May to 17 May
| Class M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Class X | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Proton | 20% | 30% | 40% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 May 148 Predicted 15 May-17 May 145/145/140 90 Day Mean 14 May 119
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 May 006/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 May 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 May-17 May 010/012-006/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 May to 17 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 25% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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