Viewing archive of Thursday, 20 June 2013
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Jun 20 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 171 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jun 2013IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
20/0920Z from Region 1777 (S16E66). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (21 Jun, 22 Jun,
23 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
493 km/s at 20/2000Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 20/1839Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 20/1839Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (21 Jun), quiet to
active levels on day two (22 Jun) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (23 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 21 Jun to 23 Jun
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Jun 126 Predicted 21 Jun-23 Jun 130/135/135 90 Day Mean 20 Jun 121
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Jun 004/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Jun 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Jun-23 Jun 020/025-013/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jun to 23 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 45% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 70% | 40% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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