Viewing archive of Saturday, 22 June 2013

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Jun 22 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 173 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jun 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 21/2217Z from Region 1772 (S22W38). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (23 Jun, 24 Jun, 25 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 710 km/s at 22/0358Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 22/0705Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 21/2234Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6 pfu at 22/1700Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 803 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (23 Jun), unsettled to active levels on day two (24 Jun) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (25 Jun). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one and two (23 Jun, 24 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Jun to 25 Jun
Class M40%40%40%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton10%10%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       22 Jun 130
  Predicted   23 Jun-25 Jun 130/130/130
  90 Day Mean        22 Jun 122

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jun  017/019
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 22 Jun  011/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 23 Jun-25 Jun  009/012-015/018-010/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jun to 25 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%35%20%
Minor storm05%15%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%10%15%
Minor storm30%25%25%
Major-severe storm30%50%25%

All times in UTC

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