Viewing archive of Tuesday, 2 July 2013
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Jul 02 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 183 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jul 2013IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at
02/1749Z from Region 1785 (S11E62). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one and two (03 Jul, 04 Jul)
and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on day
three (05 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 498 km/s at
01/2136Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 4429 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (03 Jul), quiet to unsettled levels on
day two (04 Jul) and quiet to active levels on day three (05 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 03 Jul to 05 Jul
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Jul 114 Predicted 03 Jul-05 Jul 115/115/110 90 Day Mean 02 Jul 122
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Jul 010/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Jul 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Jul-05 Jul 005/005-007/008-016/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jul to 05 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 20% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 20% | 60% |
All times in UTC
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