Viewing archive of Monday, 1 July 2013
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Jul 01 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 182 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jul 2013IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z
Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
01/1516Z from Region 1785 (S09E76). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (02 Jul,
03 Jul, 04 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
610 km/s at 01/0338Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 30/2106Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 30/2342Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5846 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (02 Jul, 03 Jul) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (04 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 02 Jul to 04 Jul
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Jul 108 Predicted 02 Jul-04 Jul 110/115/115 90 Day Mean 01 Jul 122
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jun 011/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Jul 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Jul-04 Jul 005/005-005/005-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jul to 04 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 20% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
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