Viewing archive of Sunday, 28 July 2013

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Jul 28 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 209 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Jul 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 28/1221Z from Region 1800 (S08W74). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (29 Jul) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on days two and three (30 Jul, 31 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 521 km/s at 28/1328Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 28/0621Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 27/2116Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 365 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (29 Jul, 30 Jul, 31 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 29 Jul to 31 Jul
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       28 Jul 109
  Predicted   29 Jul-31 Jul 110/120/120
  90 Day Mean        28 Jul 120

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 27 Jul  010/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 28 Jul  007/007
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 29 Jul-31 Jul  005/005-004/005-004/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Jul to 31 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%20%20%
Major-severe storm10%10%10%

All times in UTC

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