Viewing archive of Sunday, 8 December 2013
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Dec 08 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 342 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Dec 2013IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
08/1009Z. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (09 Dec, 10 Dec,
11 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 688 km/s at 08/1427Z. Total IMF reached 27 nT at 08/0219Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -24 nT at 08/0225Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (09 Dec, 10 Dec) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (11 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 09 Dec to 11 Dec
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Dec 166 Predicted 09 Dec-11 Dec 168/170/172 90 Day Mean 08 Dec 132
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Dec 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Dec 021/025 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Dec-11 Dec 011/018-009/012-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Dec to 11 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 35% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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