Viewing archive of Monday, 9 December 2013
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Dec 09 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 343 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Dec 2013IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
09/1130Z from Region 1917 (S16E43). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (10 Dec, 11 Dec,
12 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 611 km/s at
08/2145Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 08/2109Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -3 nT at 09/1443Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (10 Dec), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (11 Dec) and quiet levels on day three (12 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 10 Dec to 12 Dec
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Dec 168 Predicted 10 Dec-12 Dec 170/175/172 90 Day Mean 09 Dec 133
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Dec 014/017 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Dec 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Dec-12 Dec 009/010-007/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Dec to 12 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 35% | 10% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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