Viewing archive of Tuesday, 12 November 2013
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Nov 12 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 316 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Nov 2013IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
12/1942Z from Region 1897 (S20E51). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (13 Nov, 14
Nov, 15 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 540 km/s at
11/2349Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 11/2124Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -3 nT at 12/0953Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 322 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (13 Nov, 14 Nov), with a
chance for unsettled periods, and quiet to unsettled levels on day three
(15 Nov). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one, two,
and three (13 Nov, 14 Nov, 15 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 13 Nov to 15 Nov
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Proton | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Nov 168 Predicted 13 Nov-15 Nov 170/170/165 90 Day Mean 12 Nov 122
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Nov 013/018 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Nov 003/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Nov-15 Nov 003/005-006/005-009/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Nov to 15 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 10% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 20% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 10% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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