Viewing archive of Wednesday, 16 October 2013
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Oct 16 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 289 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Oct 2013IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
15/2336Z from Region 1865 (S21W21). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (17 Oct, 18 Oct,
19 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
575 km/s at 15/2139Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 922 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (17 Oct, 18 Oct)
and quiet levels on day three (19 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Oct to 19 Oct
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Oct 128 Predicted 17 Oct-19 Oct 125/125/120 90 Day Mean 16 Oct 110
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Oct 014/017 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Oct 010/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Oct-19 Oct 013/015-007/010-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Oct to 19 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 15% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 15% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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