Viewing archive of Tuesday, 15 October 2013
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Oct 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 288 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Oct 2013IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at
15/0507Z from Region 1865 (S21W21). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (16 Oct, 17 Oct,
18 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
578 km/s at 15/2036Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 15/0108Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 15/0053Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 284 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (16 Oct, 17 Oct) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (18 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Oct to 18 Oct
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Oct 125 Predicted 16 Oct-18 Oct 125/125/125 90 Day Mean 15 Oct 110
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Oct 010/013 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Oct 013/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Oct-18 Oct 012/015-015/018-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Oct to 18 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 30% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 30% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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