Solar activity report

Viewing archive of Wednesday, 5 February 2014

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Feb 05 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 36 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Feb 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 05/1620Z from Region 1967 (S12W38). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast

Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (06 Feb, 07 Feb, 08 Feb).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 450 km/s at 05/2054Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 05/0541Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 05/2048Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (06 Feb, 07 Feb) and quiet to active levels on day three (08 Feb). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (06 Feb, 07 Feb, 08 Feb).

III. Event Probabilities 06 Feb to 08 Feb

Class M	80%	80%	80%
Class X	25%	25%	25%
Proton	10%	10%	10%
PCAF	green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  Observed       05 Feb 194
  Predicted   06 Feb-08 Feb 198/195/190
  90 Day Mean        05 Feb 154

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  Observed Afr/Ap 04 Feb  004/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 05 Feb  004/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 06 Feb-08 Feb  006/005-006/005-008/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Feb to 08 Feb

A. Middle Latitudes
Active	05%	05%	20%
Minor storm	01%	01%	05%
Major-severe storm	01%	01%	01%

B. High Latitudes
Active	15%	15%	15%
Minor storm	15%	15%	20%
Major-severe storm	05%	05%	25%

All times in UTC

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G2 - Moderate geomagnetic storm

Observed Kp: 6
Threshold reached: 18:45 UTC

Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following middle latitude regions in the near future

Petrozavodsk, Surgut, Syktyvkar

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following middle latitude regions in the near future

Riga
Moscow, Perm, Saint Petersburg, Yaroslavl

The strength of the interplanetary magnetic field is moderate (16.13nT), the direction is moderately South (-13.41nT).

The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts strong storm conditions right now (-145nT)

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