Viewing archive of Sunday, 9 March 2014
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Mar 09 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 68 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Mar 2014IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
08/2341Z from Region 2002 (S19E64). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (10 Mar, 11 Mar,
12 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 405 km/s at
08/2132Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 148 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (10 Mar) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (11 Mar, 12 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 10 Mar to 12 Mar
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Mar 146 Predicted 10 Mar-12 Mar 140/140/140 90 Day Mean 09 Mar 159
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Mar 005/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Mar 006/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Mar-12 Mar 010/012-008/010-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Mar to 12 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 20% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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