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Viewing archive of Tuesday, 11 March 2014

Solar activity report

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Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Mar 11 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 70 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Mar 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was an M3/1f flare observed at 11/0350Z from Region 1996 (N14W64). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (12 Mar, 13 Mar, 14 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 360 km/s at 11/0913Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 11/1150Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 11/1434Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (12 Mar, 13 Mar, 14 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 12 Mar to 14 Mar
Class M75%75%75%
Class X15%15%15%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       11 Mar 165
  Predicted   12 Mar-14 Mar 165/165/160
  90 Day Mean        11 Mar 159
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 10 Mar  004/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 11 Mar  004/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 12 Mar-14 Mar  006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Mar to 14 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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G1 - Minor geomagnetic storm

Observed Kp: 5
Threshold reached: 18:55 UTC

Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Oulu, Rovaniemi, Sodankylä, Utsjoki
Kirkenes, Tromsø
Murmansk, Vorkuta
Kiruna, Luleå

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Kuopio
Trondheim
Arkhangelsk, Norilsk
Sundsvall, Umeå

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following middle latitude regions in the near future

Tampere
Petrozavodsk, Syktyvkar
The strength of the interplanetary magnetic field is high (29.42nT), the direction is slightly South (-7.63nT).

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