Viewing archive of Wednesday, 12 March 2014

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Mar 12 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 71 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Mar 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was an M2/Sn event observed at 12/1105Z from Region 1996 (N14W78). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (13 Mar, 14 Mar, 15 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 339 km/s at 11/2334Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 12/2043Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 12/2020Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (13 Mar, 14 Mar, 15 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 13 Mar to 15 Mar
Class M80%80%80%
Class X15%15%15%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       12 Mar 148
  Predicted   13 Mar-15 Mar 145/140/140
  90 Day Mean        12 Mar 159

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 11 Mar  004/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 12 Mar  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 13 Mar-15 Mar  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Mar to 15 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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