Viewing archive of Saturday, 22 March 2014

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2014 Mar 22 1206 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Valid from 1230 UTC, 22 Mar 2014 until 24 Mar 2014
Solar flares

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Quiet

10cm fluxAp
22 Mar 2014145007
23 Mar 2014145006
24 Mar 2014145006

Bulletin

NOAA AR 2011 released an M1.1 flare today, March 22, peak 07:02UT. This flare was followed by another peak in the x-ray flux not entirely visible due to data dropouts from the GOES satellite occurring during a satellite eclipse. The Solar Demon software detected an eruption in SDO/AIA 94 images in the neighbourhood of NOAA AR 2005, peak 9:30UT. We expect more flaring activity in the C-level. Isolated M-flares are possible. CACTus software sent out a halo CME alert about a plasma eruption on March 20. It concerns the plasma eruption mentioned in the ursigram of March 20 associated with the M1.7 flare. Newly arrived data shows a faint appearance of a CME front in LASCO/SOHO C2 images that comes into the FOV at 04:36UT. The CME has an angular width of around 180 degrees. The solar wind picked up speed (around 450 km/s). The Bz component is positive resulting in a Kp of 2. We expect quiet geomagnetic conditions.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 118, based on 08 stations.

Solar indices for 21 Mar 2014

Wolf number Catania152
10cm solar flux153
AK Chambon La Forêt014
AK Wingst009
Estimated Ap010
Estimated international sunspot number087 - Based on 23 stations

Noticeable events summary

DayBeginMaxEndLocStrengthOP10cmCatania/NOAARadio burst types
22065807020705S10W71M1.11F87/2011

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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G2 - Moderate geomagnetic storm

Observed Kp: 6
Threshold reached: 16:44 UTC

Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following middle latitude regions in the near future

Surgut

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following middle latitude regions in the near future

Kazan, Perm, Yekaterinburg
The solar wind speed is currently moderately high (507.1 km/sec.)
The strength of the interplanetary magnetic field is moderate (15.97nT), the direction is moderately South (-12.38nT).
The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts strong storm conditions right now (-149nT)

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Moderate G2 geomagnetic storm (Kp6) Threshold Reached: 16:34 UTC

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