Viewing archive of Wednesday, 2 April 2014
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Apr 02 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 92 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Apr 2014IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M6 event observed at
02/1405Z from Region 2027 (N12E42). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (03 Apr, 04 Apr,
05 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
496 km/s at 02/0355Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 01/2331Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 01/2149Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (03 Apr, 04 Apr) and quiet to
active levels on day three (05 Apr). Protons have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (03 Apr, 04 Apr, 05 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 03 Apr to 05 Apr
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Apr 155 Predicted 03 Apr-05 Apr 155/160/160 90 Day Mean 02 Apr 159
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Apr 005/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Apr 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Apr-05 Apr 006/005-005/005-014/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Apr to 05 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 45% |
All times in UTC
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