Viewing archive of Wednesday, 30 April 2014
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Apr 30 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 120 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Apr 2014IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
30/0620Z from Region 2049 (S07E29). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (01 May,
02 May, 03 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 330 km/s at 30/2049Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 30/1946Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 30/1307Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 263
pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (01 May), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (02 May) and quiet levels on day three (03 May).
III. Event Probabilities 01 May to 03 May
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Apr 124 Predicted 01 May-03 May 120/115/115 90 Day Mean 30 Apr 155
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Apr 007/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Apr 014/018 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 May-03 May 014/015-007/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 May to 03 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 55% | 05% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Gillam, MB, Iqaluit, NU, Whitehorse, YT, Yellowknife, NTFairbanks, AK
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