Viewing archive of Thursday, 1 May 2014
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 May 01 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 121 Issued at 2200Z on 01 May 2014IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (02 May, 03 May,
04 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
393 km/s at 01/1810Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 30/2130Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 30/2139Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (02 May, 03 May) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (04 May).
III. Event Probabilities 02 May to 04 May
| Class M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 May 126 Predicted 02 May-04 May 125/130/135 90 Day Mean 01 May 154
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Apr 012/020 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 May 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 May-04 May 006/005-006/005-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 May to 04 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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