Viewing archive of Friday, 9 May 2014

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2014 May 09 1229 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
09 May 2014	147	007
10 May 2014	147	011
11 May 2014	147	011

Bulletin

Solar activity has been low for the past 24 hours, with only a couple of low level C flares originating from the regions in the eastern hemisphere. Catania group 43 (NOAA AR 2056) (which produced the M5.3 flare yesterday) only produced a single C1.4 flare. The other low level C flares were from new group 46 (NOAA AR 2058) with the largest one a C3.3 flare peaking at 8:19 UT. Some further C flares are to be expected in the coming days with the chance for an M flare increasing. An asymmetric halo CME was visible in LASCO C2 coronagraph data from 2:48 UT onwards (it was not detected by CACTus as it incorrectly identified it as 3 separate CME's). The mass was expelled predominantly to the west from the Sun Earth line. No on disc activity could be associated. In SDO/AIA 304 the ejecta can be seen to originate from the western limb at latitudes corresponding to NOAA AR 2047 which has already turned around the west limb. Together with STEREO data this confirms that the CME is backsided and will not be geoeffective. Solar wind speed has been in the 350 km/s to 400 km/s range. Up to 10nT total magnetic field strengths persisted in the first 12 hours but have now slowly decreased to about 6nT. During that first period of increased total magnetic field, Bz was predominantly negative with periods of up to -9nT. It was later more variable, roughly within the -6nT to 6nT range. Unsettled to active conditions have continued over the first halve of the past 24 hours (NOAA Kp=4 and local K Dourbes =3), but have eased to quiet to unsettled later on. Quiet to unsettled conditions are first expected to continue but unsettled (and possibly active) conditions may accompany the influence of a coronal hole high speed stream later on.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 096, based on 13 stations.

Solar indices for 08 May 2014

Wolf number Catania	142
10cm solar flux	148
AK Chambon La Forêt	025
AK Wingst	021
Estimated Ap	022
Estimated international sunspot number	089 - Based on 17 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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