Viewing archive of Saturday, 10 May 2014

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2014 May 10 1232 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
10 May 2014	152	006
11 May 2014	155	007
12 May 2014	159	007

Bulletin

A number of C level flares were reported in the period of which two in the higher C levels. The biggest one was a C8.7 flare originating from Catania group 43 (NOAA AR 2056) and peaking at 7:02 UT. The other was a C7.8 flare originating from Catania group 47 (NOAA AR 2058) peaking at 15:01 UT. Other C flares originated from Catania groups 37 and 42 (NOAA AR 2052 and 2055 respectively). Further C flares are to be expected with a chance for M flares. An asymmetric halo CME was visible in SOHO/LASCO C2 data from 4:48 UT onwards, with primary direction towards the west of the Sun Earth line. No related activity on the visible solar disc could be identified while STEREO Ahead EUVI 195 images show related activity near NOAA AR 2051 at the far side of the Sun. The event is thus confirmed to be backsided and not geoeffective. Solar wind speed was variable in the 350 to 400 km/s range. The total magnetic field increased from a minimum of about 4 nT shortly after the start of the reporting period to around 7nT presently. Bz was mostly positive apart from a period of negative Bz after the start of UT day May 10, reaching maximal amplitudes of around -6nT. Geomagnetic activity has been mostly quiet with both local K and NOAA Kp at most 2 apart from in isolated period of unsettled global condition Kp=3. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected to persist for the next days.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 081, based on 05 stations.

Solar indices for 09 May 2014

Wolf number Catania	164
10cm solar flux	152
AK Chambon La Forêt	012
AK Wingst	008
Estimated Ap	007
Estimated international sunspot number	092 - Based on 20 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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