Viewing archive of Monday, 9 June 2014
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Jun 09 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.comJoint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 160 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jun 2014
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at
09/1229Z from Region 2085 (S20W16). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (10 Jun, 11 Jun, 12 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 645 km/s at
08/2205Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 09/0213Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -3 nT at 09/0721Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (10 Jun, 11 Jun, 12
Jun). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one,
two, and three (10 Jun, 11 Jun, 12 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 10 Jun to 12 Jun
Class M | 45% | 45% | 45% |
Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
Proton | 10% | 15% | 20% |
PCAF | green
|
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Jun 161
Predicted 10 Jun-12 Jun 165/165/165
90 Day Mean 09 Jun 138
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jun 029/037
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jun 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jun-12 Jun 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jun to 12 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes |
Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
B. High Latitudes |
Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
COMMENT: Fredericksburg observed A-Index is estimated due to system
issues on site.
All times in UTC
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