Viewing archive of Sunday, 15 June 2014

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Jun 15 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 166 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jun 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 15/1139Z from Region 2085 (S18W97). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on day one (16 Jun) and likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on day two (17 Jun) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on day three (18 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 413 km/s at 15/0831Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 15/1649Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 15/0807Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (16 Jun, 17 Jun) and mostly quiet levels on day three (18 Jun). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on day one (16 Jun) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day two and three (17-18 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Jun to 18 Jun
Class M55%55%50%
Class X25%20%15%
Proton25%20%15%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       15 Jun 130
  Predicted   16 Jun-18 Jun 130/130/130
  90 Day Mean        15 Jun 139

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jun  008/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 15 Jun  005/006
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 16 Jun-18 Jun  009/010-008/008-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jun to 18 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm25%20%20%
Major-severe storm30%20%15%

All times in UTC

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