Viewing archive of Sunday, 15 June 2014
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Jun 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 166 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jun 2014IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
15/1139Z from Region 2085 (S18W97). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on day one (16 Jun) and likely to be
moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on day two (17 Jun)
and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight
chance for an X-class flare on day three (18 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 413 km/s at
15/0831Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 15/1649Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5 nT at 15/0807Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (16 Jun, 17 Jun)
and mostly quiet levels on day three (18 Jun). Protons have a chance of
crossing threshold on day one (16 Jun) and have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on day two and three (17-18 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Jun to 18 Jun
| Class M | 55% | 55% | 50% |
| Class X | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Proton | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Jun 130 Predicted 16 Jun-18 Jun 130/130/130 90 Day Mean 15 Jun 139
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jun 008/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jun 005/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jun-18 Jun 009/010-008/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jun to 18 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 20% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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