Viewing archive of Monday, 7 July 2014

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Jul 07 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 188 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jul 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 07/0802Z from Region 2109 (S10E09). There are currently 11 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (08 Jul, 09 Jul, 10 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 373 km/s at 07/1659Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 07/1946Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 07/1740Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (08 Jul), unsettled levels on day two (09 Jul) and quiet levels on day three (10 Jul). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (08 Jul, 09 Jul, 10 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 08 Jul to 10 Jul
Class M70%70%70%
Class X15%15%15%
Proton15%15%15%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       07 Jul 198
  Predicted   08 Jul-10 Jul 200/200/190
  90 Day Mean        07 Jul 135

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 06 Jul  006/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 07 Jul  006/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 08 Jul-10 Jul  009/010-011/012-007/007

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jul to 10 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%10%
Minor storm05%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm25%20%15%
Major-severe storm25%20%10%

All times in UTC

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