Viewing archive of Friday, 11 July 2014

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Jul 11 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 192 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jul 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 10/2234Z from Region 2106 (N16W75). There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (12 Jul) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days two and three (13 Jul, 14 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 407 km/s at 10/2304Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and three (12 Jul, 14 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (13 Jul). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (12 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 12 Jul to 14 Jul
Class M60%50%30%
Class X10%05%05%
Proton10%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       11 Jul 166
  Predicted   12 Jul-14 Jul 150/140/135
  90 Day Mean        11 Jul 137

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jul  011/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 11 Jul  006/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 12 Jul-14 Jul  006/005-008/010-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jul to 14 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%20%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%20%15%
Minor storm15%30%20%
Major-severe storm15%25%20%

All times in UTC

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