Viewing archive of Saturday, 2 August 2014
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Aug 02 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 214 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Aug 2014IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
02/1328Z from Region 2132 (S19E32). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(03 Aug, 04 Aug, 05 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
510 km/s at 02/1332Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 01/2112Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 02/1353Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (03 Aug) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (04 Aug, 05 Aug). Protons greater
than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day three (05
Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 03 Aug to 05 Aug
| Class M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Class X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Aug 156 Predicted 03 Aug-05 Aug 150/145/145 90 Day Mean 02 Aug 131
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Aug 014/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Aug 010/014 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Aug-05 Aug 014/016-010/012-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Aug to 05 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 45% | 40% | 25% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Oulu, Rovaniemi, Sodankylä, UtsjokiReykjavik
Kirkenes, Tromsø
Murmansk
Kiruna, Luleå
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