Viewing archive of Saturday, 4 October 2014

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Oct 04 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 277 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Oct 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 03/2215Z from Region 2172 (S08W91). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (05 Oct) and likely to be low on days two and three (06 Oct, 07 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 416 km/s at 04/1859Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 04/1809Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 04/1949Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 395 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (05 Oct, 06 Oct) and quiet levels on day three (07 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 05 Oct to 07 Oct
Class M15%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       04 Oct 128
  Predicted   05 Oct-07 Oct 125/120/120
  90 Day Mean        04 Oct 133

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 03 Oct  003/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 04 Oct  004/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 05 Oct-07 Oct  007/010-008/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Oct to 07 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%20%15%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm30%25%20%
Major-severe storm40%25%20%

All times in UTC

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