Viewing archive of Sunday, 5 October 2014
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Oct 05 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 278 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Oct 2014IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
05/1656Z from Region 2177 (N13W54). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low on days
one, two, and three (06 Oct, 07 Oct, 08 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 498 km/s at
05/0154Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 04/2126Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -7 nT at 05/0250Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 456 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (06 Oct, 07 Oct)
and quiet levels on day three (08 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 06 Oct to 08 Oct
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Oct 128 Predicted 06 Oct-08 Oct 125/120/120 90 Day Mean 05 Oct 133
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Oct 005/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Oct 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Oct-08 Oct 008/008-007/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Oct to 08 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 25% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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