Viewing archive of Saturday, 1 November 2014
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Nov 01 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 305 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Nov 2014IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at
01/1646Z from Region 2201 (S05E37). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low on days
one, two, and three (02 Nov, 03 Nov, 04 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
580 km/s at 01/0803Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 01/0640Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 01/1136Z. Protons greater
than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5 pfu at
01/2025Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 857 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (02 Nov, 03 Nov) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (04 Nov). Protons greater than 10
Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (02 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 02 Nov to 04 Nov
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 20% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Nov 120 Predicted 02 Nov-04 Nov 118/115/115 90 Day Mean 01 Nov 141
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Oct 005/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Nov 006/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Nov-04 Nov 011/012-010/012-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Nov to 04 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 40% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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