Viewing archive of Sunday, 2 November 2014
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Nov 02 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 306 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Nov 2014IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
02/1703Z from Region 2201 (S05E23). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (03 Nov,
04 Nov, 05 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
539 km/s at 01/2252Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 02/0251Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 02/1212Z. Protons greater
than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 9 pfu at
02/2045Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 827 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (03 Nov, 05 Nov)
and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (04 Nov). Protons greater than
10 Mev are likely to cross threshold on day one (03 Nov) and have a
chance of crossing threshold on day two (04 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 03 Nov to 05 Nov
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 70% | 30% | 01% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Nov 124 Predicted 03 Nov-05 Nov 120/120/118 90 Day Mean 02 Nov 141
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Nov 005/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Nov 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Nov-05 Nov 009/012-007/010-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Nov to 05 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 30% | 40% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
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