Viewing archive of Friday, 28 November 2014
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Nov 28 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 332 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Nov 2014IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at
28/0040Z from Region 2222 (S20E44). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (29 Nov, 30 Nov,
01 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
412 km/s at 28/1242Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 28/1459Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 28/1215Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 439 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (29 Nov, 30 Nov) and quiet to
active levels on day three (01 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 29 Nov to 01 Dec
| Class M | 40% | 45% | 50% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Nov 181 Predicted 29 Nov-01 Dec 185/185/185 90 Day Mean 28 Nov 151
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Nov 007/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Nov 004/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Nov-01 Dec 006/005-006/005-011/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Nov to 01 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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