Viewing archive of Sunday, 14 December 2014
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Dec 14 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 348 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Dec 2014IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
14/1933Z from Region 2242 (S20E38). There are currently 11 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(15 Dec, 16 Dec, 17 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
512 km/s at 13/2232Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 14/2025Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 14/1125Z. Protons greater
than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2 pfu at
14/1020Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 816 pfu. Afr data unavailable due to non-receipt.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (15 Dec, 17
Dec) and quiet to active levels on day two (16 Dec). Protons have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (15 Dec,
16 Dec, 17 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 15 Dec to 17 Dec
| Class M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Dec 166 Predicted 15 Dec-17 Dec 170/170/170 90 Day Mean 14 Dec 152
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Dec NA/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Dec 009/011 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Dec-17 Dec 008/008-009/012-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Dec to 17 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 35% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 40% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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